The 20th-ranked Texas Longhorns host No. 9 Vanderbilt Saturday in a crucial SEC tilt with College Football Playoff and SEC title game implications for both teams.
Vanderbilt (7-1) is having an historic season behind dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia and one of the nation’s most efficient and run-heavy offenses, while Texas (6-2) has clawed back into the conversation re: conference and national title chase. If Arch Manning (concussion) is healthy enough to play, a win for the Longhorns continues his renaissance. If the Commodores were to pick up the win in Austin, Diego Pavia’s Heisman campaign becomes all the more real. A loss will more than likely be a fatal blow for whichever side comes up short.
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The game within the game is the matchup of Vanderbilt’s elite run game against Texas’ punishing run defense.
Lets dive into the schools and look at each on both sides of the ball, a handful of players to watch, and also some key numbers.
Game Details and How to watch No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas
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Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025
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Site: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Game Odds for No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
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Moneyline: Texas Longhorns (-166), Vanderbilt Commodores (+140)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Vanderbilt Commodores
Head Coach: Clark Lea
2025 Record: 7-1
Offense Ranking: 12
Defense Ranking: 32
Strength of Schedule: 18
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Vanderbilt has emerged as one of the SEC’s biggest surprises in 2025, sitting at 7–1 (3–1 SEC) and ranked 15th overall in SP+, with a Top 12 offense powering their success. The Commodores’ balanced attack ranks 7th nationally in success rate (51.8%) and 5th in yards per rush (6.5) while finishing drives at an elite 5.50 points per scoring opportunity (3rd). Defensively, they’ve given ground but stiffened up when needed, ranking 19th in havoc rate (18.4%) and 18th in points allowed per scoring opportunity (3.66), offsetting modest explosiveness prevention. Under head coach Clark Lea, Vanderbilt combines surgical offensive efficiency, improved defensive discipline, and one of the nation’s best special-teams units (4th in SP+) to become a legitimate dark-horse contender in the SEC.
The Vanderbilt Commodores Offense
Vanderbilt’s offense has been one of the most exciting units in the country behind QB Diego Pavia, ranking 12th nationally in Offensive SP+ and 7th in success rate (51.8%) while averaging 7.21 yards per play. The Commodores thrive on balance, posting a 6.5-yard rushing average (5th) and a 55.2% passing success rate (4th) behind elite execution on standard downs (55.8%, 13th) and passing downs (49.5%, 1st). Their offensive line has been a major strength, allowing pressure on just 2.0% of dropbacks (34th) while paving the way for 3.93 yards before contact per carry, the best mark in the nation. Vanderbilt’s ultra-slow tempo (30.7 seconds per play, 133rd) belies their explosiveness, as they maximize every possession with elite red-zone finishing (79.5% TD rate, 6th) and top-tier efficiency through the air and on the ground.
Vanderbilt Player to Watch on Offense: QB Diego Pavia
Quarterback Diego Pavia has been the unquestioned catalyst of this offense, combining efficient passing and dynamic mobility to post an impressive 82.2 Total QBR through eight starts. He’s completed 68.8% of his passes for 1,698 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 12.2 yards per completion with a strong 55.7% success rate while making an occasional mistake (5 INTs). On the ground, Pavia adds another dimension with 489 rushing yards and five scores, averaging 6.27 yards per carry and converting nearly 40% of his runs into first downs. His ability to extend plays — evidenced by a 20% rate of 10+ yard runs and a modest 3.3% sack rate — makes him one of the most complete dual-threat quarterbacks in the SEC.
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The Vanderbilt Commodores Defense
Vanderbilt’s defense has been sturdy and opportunistic, ranking 32nd in Defensive SP+ while holding opponents to just 5.20 yards per play (47th) and a 39.7% success rate (52nd). The Commodores’ front has generated consistent disturbance with an 18.4% overall havoc rate (19th nationally), fueled by a laudable defensive line havoc rate of 7.1% with the linebackers contributing another 6.1%. Against the run, Vanderbilt is giving up 4.6 yards per carry (60th) and ranks 18th in points allowed per scoring opportunity (3.66), excelling at red-zone stops (56.5% TD rate). While vulnerable to explosive plays on the ground (9.6 yards per succ. Rush, 92st), Clark Lea’s unit has been able to generate enough disruption (36% pressure rate, 22nd) to force turnovers (11 TO’s, 39th) and get key stops to help Vanderbilt win competitive games.
Vanderbilt Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Miles Capers
Edge rusher Miles Capers has been Vanderbilt’s most consistent and impactful defender, combining speed and power to post 4.5 sacks, 8.0 havoc plays, and 20 total pressures through seven games. He’s generated a 15.2% pressure rate on 132 pass-rush snaps, forcing one fumble and ranking among the team leaders in both TFLs (5.5) and run stops (5). Capers’ blend of efficiency and relentlessness shows in his 2.81-second average time to first pressure and 23.4% third-down pressure rate, both top-tier marks for SEC linebackers. His ability to collapse pockets and finish plays has made him a cornerstone of Vanderbilt’s resurgent front-seven under defensive coordinator Steve Gregory.
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Texas Longhorns
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2025 Record: 6-2
Offense Ranking: 53
Defense Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: 9
Texas sits at 6–2 (3–1 Big 12), powered by a defense ranked No. 3 in SP+ that has smothered opponents by allowing just 4.43 yards per play (12th nationally) and ranking Top 10 in both rushing and passing success rate allowed. Offensively, the Longhorns have regressed from last year’s explosive pace, ranking 53rd in Offensive SP+ and posting a modest 40.1% success rate (106th), though they remain explosive with 13.0 yards per successful play (30th). The offense has shown disappointing red-zone execution ranking 80th with a 61.3% red zone TD rate, while the defense excels at stifling opposing offenses giving up just 1.12 points per opponent possession (7th) with a 40% 3-and-out rate. Despite inconsistency on offense and penalties, Texas’s top-tier defense and turnover margin of +7 have kept them in the thick of the Big 12 and playoff races.
The Texas Longhorns Offense
Texas’ offense has been inconsistent in 2025, ranking 53rd nationally in Offensive SP+ and posting a 40.1% success rate (106th) despite elite talent at the skill positions. The unit relies on explosive plays rather than sustained efficiency, generating 13.0 yards per successful play (30th) and ranking 27th in marginal explosiveness, but struggling on early downs with just a 44.8% standard-down success rate (110th). The ground game has been pedestrian by Texas standards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry (108th) and a negative EPA per rush (-0.01, 95th), while the passing attack has produced uneven results with a 61.0% completion rate and 6.8 yards per dropback (64th). Penalties and stalled drives have limited scoring consistency (125th in OL penalties), but the offense remains capable of sudden strikes and high-leverage conversions when execution clicks.
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Texas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Arch Manning
Arch Manning has shown flashes of star potential as Texas’ full-time starter, throwing for 1,795 yards and 15 touchdowns while adding 275 rushing yards and six scores across eight starts. His 12.6 yards per completion highlight his downfield aggressiveness, though his 60.9% completion rate and 38.6% success rate show room for improved consistency in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Manning’s pocket presence remains a work in progress, taking sacks on 7.1% of dropbacks and pressured on nearly one in five dropbacks (19.4%), yet he offsets that with efficient mobility and a 52.0% rushing success rate. With an 8.1 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and a 57.4 Total QBR, Manning’s dual-threat ability continues to drive Texas’s explosive potential despite the unit’s overall inefficiency. He is currently questionable to play with a concussion, trending towards a game time decision.
The Texas Longhorns Defense
Texas’ defense has been the foundation of its success, ranking 3rd nationally in Defensive SP+ and allowing just 4.43 yards per play (12th). The front seven has been certifiably devastating against the run, holding opponents to 3.2 yards per carry (1st nationally) and a 33.3% rushing success rate (9th), while generating consistent pressure with an 8.8% sack rate (13th). On passing downs, the Longhorns have limited opponents to 5.3 yards per dropback (26th) and a 22.2% success rate (10th), anchored by a linebacker corps that ranks 2nd nationally in havoc rate (9.2%). With elite tackling efficiency (88.0%, 22nd) and an opportunistic +7 turnover margin, Texas’s defense consistently flips field position and suppresses explosive plays, making it one of the most complete units in college football.
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Texas Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Colin Simmons
Colin Simmons has emerged as Texas’ premier edge threat, recording 23 tackles, 8.0 havoc plays, and 7.0 sacks through eight games while maintaining a respectable 82.1% tackle success rate. His 16.2% pressure rate on 136 pass-rush snaps demonstrates elite burst and closing speed off the edge, with 20 first pressures and an average time to first pressure of 2.82 seconds. Simmons’ seven sacks lead the team, as his ability to convert pressure into production has made him a game-altering presence in critical downs. His combination of quickness, hand technique, and finishing power has positioned him as one of college football’s most disruptive Edge defenders.
No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores and No. 20 Texas Longhorns team stats, betting trends
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Texas has gone 7-3 in its last 10 games
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Vanderbilt has covered the Spread in 7 of its last 10 road games
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The UNDER is 7-3 in Texas’ last 10 home games
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): LEAN Texas UNDER 24.5 Team Total Points
We don’t know if Arch Manning is playing or not, and with Pavia’s passing line plummeting from an open of 195.5 yards down to 174.5, as the value of the Pavia Passing Honey Hole I’ve been dipping into all season (including in this column last week) has finally lost it’s value. There are no Texas props at time of print due to the uncertain status of Arch, which clouds the entire cap of the game. I’m taking a wait and see approach before I put any official money down, but I’m leaning towards the Texas Under 24.5 Team Point Total and will take a position on the Under if Arch can’t go.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
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Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas
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Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
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Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Texas Longhorns at -2.5.
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Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the over on the Game Total of 45.5.
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