For the first time in more than a few years, the Vanderbilt Commodores (5-1, 1-1 SEC) are in the hunt for the SEC championship in the middle of October. Ranked 17th in the nation, Vandy hosts 10th-ranked LSU (5-12-1 SEC) Saturday in Nashville.
With a win, the Commodores will be off to their best start since 1950 and more importantly will remain right in the thick of the race atop the SEC. However, LSU has won the last ten games in this series.
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As strange as it is to see Vanderbilt contending in football in the SEC, it is equally odd to see LSU’s defense as the Tigers’ calling card. Head Coach Brian Kelly has a veteran quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, but the offense has yet to find its rhythm. The defense, though, is 5th in FBS Scoring allowing just 11.8 points per game.
Vanderbilt was on a bye last weekend. Their last game was two weeks ago – a 30-14 loss against Alabama. LSU won at home against South Carolina, 20-10, last Saturday.
Lets dive into the two schools on both sides of the ball and look at the numbers that matter along with a few of the players that must make a difference Saturday if their school is to remain in the hunt for an SEC championship.
Game Details and How to watch No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt
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Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
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Game Odds for No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
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Moneyline: Vanderbilt Commodores (-142), LSU Tigers (+120)
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Spread: Vanderbilt -3 (-105)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
LSU Tigers
Head Coach: Brian Kelly
2025 Record: 5-1
Offense Ranking: 45
Defense Ranking: 4
Strength of Schedule: 5
LSU sits at 5–1 (2–1 SEC) and ranks 17th in SP+, powered by the 4th ranked defense that’s carrying their inconsistent 45th rated offense through the first half of 2025. The Tigers are excelling defensively in efficiency and finishing drives – ranking 7th nationally in points allowed per drive (1.04) and 4th in points allowed per scoring opportunity (3.09), while allowing just 4.57 yards per play. Offensively, LSU has struggled to run the ball (38.2% rushing success rate, 117th) and finish red-zone drives (58.3% TD rate, 91st), but their 48.9% passing success rate (22nd) has kept the chains moving. HC Brian Kelly’s squad projects between 8–9 wins, with strong playoff-level defensive metrics offset by a sluggish, mistake-prone offense that must improve its red-zone and explosive-play efficiency to compete with Alabama and Texas A&M in the SEC West.
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The LSU Tigers Offense
LSU’s offense has been efficient but inconsistent, ranking 45th in Offensive SP+ with a strong passing game offset by one of the SEC’s least effective rushing attacks. The Tigers average 5.69 yards per play (74th) and post a 44.4% success rate (57th), driven largely by a 48.9% passing success rate (22nd) behind accurate short and intermediate throws. However, the ground game has faltered with LSU ranking 117th in rushing success rate (38.2%) and 104th in yards per carry (4.5). Lackluster push up front (12.1% blown run block rate, 111th) has led to the nation’s 128th stuff rate, with 24% of their rushes going for >0 yards. Red-zone execution remains a major issue (58.3% TD rate, 91st), and unless the run game stabilizes, the offense will continue to rely heavily on precision passing and situational efficiency to sustain drives.
LSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Garrett Nussmeier
Garrett Nussmeier has provided steady leadership for LSU’s offense, starting all six games and throwing for 1,413 yards and 9 touchdowns while completing 66.2% of his passes. He’s been accurate in rhythm, posting a 48.9% success rate and just a 3.3% sack rate, showing poise and quick decision-making under pressure. Though Nussmeier’s 6.9 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) reflects a modest explosive output, likely due to a rumored injury that’s hampering his throwing ability, he’s operated efficiently with a solid 75.9 Total QBR. Nussmeier has also contributed as a scrambler, averaging 6.7 yards per carry and converting 58.3% of his rushes into first downs, making him a reliable dual threat when plays break down.
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The LSU Tigers Defense
LSU’s defense has reemerged as one of the nation’s most complete units, ranking 4th in Defensive SP+ and allowing just 4.57 yards per play (21st nationally). The Tigers dominate situationally, holding opponents to a 36.9% success rate (27th) and only 1.04 points per drive (7th) while ranking 4th in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Their front creates steady disruption with a 17.9% havoc rate (27th) and elite 7.7% DL havoc rate (23rd), complemented by a secondary that excels in zone coverage (5.6 yards per dropback vs. zone, 29th). With Top 25 marks in both EPA/play and explosiveness prevention, DC Blake Baker’s defense has carried LSU’s playoff hopes by consistently winning on standard downs and suffocating opponents in scoring territory.
LSU Player to Watch on Defense: LB Harold Perkins Jr.
Harold Perkins Jr. has been a vital contributor for LSU, posting 24 tackles, 6.0 havoc plays, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 2.0 sacks through six games while maintaining an 85.7% tackling rate. As a slot linebacker hybrid, he’s generated steady disruption with a 17.5% pressure rate on 40 pass rushes and has been a consistent force in run defense with three run stops. Perkins has also excelled in coverage, allowing just 2 completions on 4 targets (50%) for only 24 yards and a 6.0 yards per target average, reflecting his growth in space and zone discipline. His combination of pass-rushing explosiveness and improved coverage ability make him one of the SEC’s most dynamic defenders.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Head Coach: Clark Lea
2025 Record: 5-1
Offense Ranking: 10th
Defense Ranking: 35th
Strength of Schedule: 14th
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Vanderbilt has quietly become one of the most efficient and explosive teams in the SEC, sitting at 5-1 (1-1) with an impressive SP+ ranking of 19th. The Commodores’ offense has been elite, ranking 10th nationally in Offensive SP+, averaging 7.6 yards per play (5th) and 3.76 points per drive (3rd) thanks to a balanced attack that ranks 7th in rushing success rate (53.5%) and 4th in passing success rate (57.5%). Defensively, Vanderbilt has made major strides under Clark Lea, holding opponents to a 39.8% success rate (60th) while generating havoc at a top-5 national rate (22%), driven by an aggressive front seven that ranks 16th in DL havoc rate and 5th in LB havoc. With elite red-zone execution, a +4 turnover margin, and Top 20 efficiency on both sides, Vanderbilt has positioned itself as a legitimate contender in the SEC for the first time in many years.
The Vanderbilt Commodores Offense
Vanderbilt’s offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic units in the nation, ranking 10th in Offensive SP+ and Top 5 nationally in both yards per play (7.6) and points per drive (3.76). The Commodores’ ground game is their foundation, leading the country in yards per rush (6.8) and yards before contact (4.14) while converting an exceptional 53.5% rushing success rate. Through the air, they’ve been equally efficient, posting a 57.5% passing success rate (4th) and an 11.5 adjusted net yards per attempt, showcasing an offense that consistently creates chunk plays and sustains drives. Their red-zone execution has been elite, scoring touchdowns on 81.8% of trips (6th), making the Commodores one of the most balanced attacks in the SEC.
Vanderbilt Player To Watch on Offense: QB Diego Pavia
Diego Pavia has been the engine of his offense, delivering elite dual-threat production through six starts. He’s completed 71.4% of his passes for 1,409 yards and 14 touchdowns, pairing explosive efficiency (12.3 yards per completion, 9.5 ANY/A) with a stellar 82.5 Total QBR. On the ground, Pavia adds another layer to his profile, rushing 56 times for 375 yards (6.7 YPC) with a 57.1% success rate and an impressive 21.7% of carries gaining 10+ yards. His combination of poise, accuracy, and playmaking ability both through the air and on the run makes him one of the most complete quarterbacks in his conference.
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The Vanderbilt Commodores Defense
Vanderbilt’s defense has shown steady improvement under DC Steve Gregory, ranking 35th in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to a 39.8% success rate with a Top 20 3-and-out percentage (39.1%). The Commodores excel at creating disruption, boasting a 22.0% overall havoc rate (5th) fueled by aggressive linebacker play (7.6% LB havoc rate, 5th) and a defensive line that generates consistent interior pressure (8.4% DL havoc rate, 16th). While they’ve allowed 5.09 yards per play (41st), the unit has stiffened in scoring territory, giving up just 3.87 points per scoring opportunity (36th) and holding opponents to a 63.2% red-zone TD rate. Their opportunistic, chaos-driven approach has turned Vanderbilt into a defense that bends but rarely breaks, thriving on takeaways and negative plays to flip field position.
Vanderbilt Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Khordae Sydnor
Khordae Sydnor has been a monster off the edge for Vanderbilt, ranking among the team leaders in both havoc plays (10.0) and tackles for loss (7.5) through six games. He has recorded 23 tackles (13 solo) with 2.5 sacks and a team-high 16 quarterback pressures on 128 pass-rush snaps (12.5% pressure rate). Sydnor’s explosiveness off the line is complemented by strong run discipline, as 74% of his tackles have come against the run and he’s recorded six run stops. His blend of power and burst makes Sydnor one of the Commodores’ most productive defenders.
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No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt team stats, betting trends
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Vanderbilt has won 13 of the last 15 games when it has been a home favorite
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Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in its last 3 games against teams with better records
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The Over is 12-7-1 for LSU’s last 10 on the road and Vanderbilt’s last 10 at home combined
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Sedrick Alexander UNDER 47.5 yards rushing
Vanderbilt has hitched their offense to Diego Pavia, as he is the primary catalyst in both the run and pass games for Vandy. With their star QB taking center stage, the rest of the backfield has been sparsely utilized in recent weeks, especially starting RB Sedrick Alexander who received just 4 carries against Alabama, with one of those totes going for a 65-yard touchdown. He had failed to clear the 47.5 rushing yards line in each of his previous three games and now must contend with a stout LSU front that ranks 25th in EPA/Rush and 14th in yards before contact allowed. With Vanderbilt leaning primarily on the pass, operating at the 132nd pace nationally and Pavia being the entire focus of the offense, I’m taking Sedrick Alexander to go Under 47.5 Rushing Yards.
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Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between LSU and Vanderbilt
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Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
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Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Vanderbilt Commodores at -2.5.
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Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 48.5.
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