The No. 3 Hoosiers of Indiana (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) take their highest national ranking in school history into their game Saturday afternoon against the Spartans of Michigan State (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten).
This is a game featuring two teams going in opposite directions.
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Indiana jumped to No. 3 in the polls following the program’s first-ever win over a Top 5 team – 30-20 last week at Oregon. The Hoosiers are off to the third 6-0 start in school history (2024 and 1967 were the other two seasons).
Michigan State has struggled this season having lost their last three games including last week’s 38-13 embarrassment at the hands of the suddenly surging UCLA Bruins. Yes, the offense has labored but not compared to the defense which has allowed a minimum of 38 points in each of the Spartans’ three conference games.
These schools annually play for the Old Brass Spittoon. Indiana won last year and has claimed the trophy three of the last five years.
Lets take a deeper dive into the matchup and look at each of the schools on both sides of the school, highlight a few of the top players involved, and see what the numbers tell us.
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Game Details and How to watch Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana
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Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
Game Odds for Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
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Moneyline: Indiana Hoosiers (-4500), Michigan State Spartans (+1700)
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Spread: Indiana -27.5 (-112)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Indiana Hoosiers
Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2025 Record: 6-0
Offense Ranking: 12
Defense Ranking: 5
Strength of Schedule: 34
The Indiana Hoosiers have surged into national prominence with a 6–0 start and the No. 3 overall SP+ ranking, combining the nation’s No. 12 offense and No. 5 defense under the hottest HC in the country, Curt Cignetti. Offensively, Indiana operates with balance and precision, ranking 3rd nationally in success rate (55.5%), 14th in yards per play (7.10), and converting 54.1% on third downs, while averaging a robust 33.5-point scoring margin. Defensively, the Hoosiers are elite across the board – No. 1 in EPA/play (-0.24), No. 3 in success rate allowed (29.7%), and No. 1 nationally in havoc rate (25.8%)—fueled by relentless line play that ranks first in DL havoc rate (11.7%). With efficiency on both sides of the ball, elite discipline (fourth fewest penalties per game), and a turnover margin of +7, Indiana profiles as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender heading into the heart of Big Ten play.
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The Indiana Hoosiers Offense
Indiana’s offense has been one of the most relentless units in the country, ranking 3rd nationally in success rate (55.5%) and averaging an explosive 7.10 yards per play. The Hoosiers pair a potent ground attack — gaining 5.9 yards per carry with a 52.8% rushing success rate — with a precision passing game that completes 71.3% of attempts and ranks 6th in adjusted net yards per attempt (12.8). On standard downs, they rank 8th in success rate (56.9%), thanks to streamlined execution behind an offensive line that allows pressure on just 1.7% of dropbacks. This combination of precision passing, efficient rushing, and elite protection has powered Indiana to 3.49 points per drive and one of the most complete offensive profiles in college football.
Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrust himself into 1st round NFL Draft consideration, completing 71.2% of his passes for 1,423 yards, 17 touchdowns, and only two interceptions through six starts. He ranks among the nation’s most efficient passers with an 11.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and an 84.6 QBR, balancing accuracy and deep-ball efficiency with 13.1 yards per completion. Mendoza has also adds a dual-threat element, rushing 30 times for 163 yards and two scores, posting a sparkling 63.3% rushing success rate. His poise under pressure (just a 3.8% sack rate) and strong decision-making have been the driving force behind Indiana’s high-octane offense.
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The Indiana Hoosiers Defense
Indiana’s defense has been one of the most dominant units in the nation, ranking 1st in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate allowed (29.7%), while surrendering just 4.20 yards per play. The Hoosiers thrive on disruption, leading the country with a 25.8% havoc rate including a FBS-leading 11.7% from the defensive line while ranking 3rd in sacks per dropback (11.5%). Their pass defense has been suffocating — holding opponents to 4.0 yards per dropback (2nd), just 27.6% passing success (3rd), and a 5.6% interception rate (1st) – while allowing touchdowns on only 16.7% of red-zone trips, also numero uno nationally. With elite efficiency, pressure generation, and suffocating tackling (91.7% success rate, 4th nationally), Indiana’s defense has brandished a true championship-caliber identity through six games.
Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Kellen Wyatt
Edge defender Kellan Wyatt has been a demon for the Hoosiers, posting 25 tackles, 10 havoc plays, and 8 tackles for loss across six games. He’s converted heavy hands and an explosive burst into 2.5 sacks and 9 run stops, maintaining a strong 96.2% tackling rate that minimizes mistakes at the line of scrimmage. Wyatt’s 8.0% pressure rate on 50 pass rushes and 2.85s time to first pressure reflect his consistent ability to collapse pockets and disrupt quarterbacks.
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Michigan State Spartans
Head Coach: Jonathan Smith
2025 Record: 3-3
Offense Ranking: 65
Defense Ranking: 77
Strength of Schedule: 22
Michigan State sits at 3–3 (0–3 B10) with a 70th SP+ ranking, reflecting a middling profile under head coach Jonathan Smith as the Spartans rebuild. The offense has shown flashes of efficiency, ranking 10th nationally in points per scoring opportunity (5.65), but overall consistency remains elusive, averaging just 5.28 yards per play (98th) and ranking 75th in success rate (42.7%). Defensively, the unit has struggled against both the run and pass ranking 108th in success rate allowed (44.4%) and giving up 5.89 yards per play (103rd), while the front seven’s 14.1% havoc rate (91st) shows limited disruption. With bowl odds below 10% and a daunting schedule ahead, Michigan State’s path to contention hinges on improving defensive fundamentals.
The Michigan State Spartans Offense
Michigan State’s offense has been inconsistent through six games, ranking 65th in Offensive SP+ while averaging 29.7 yards per drive (102nd) and 2.54 points per drive (51st). The Spartans are at their best in the red zone, where they rank 6th nationally in points per scoring opportunity (5.65) and 10th in red zone touchdown rate (78.3%), but explosive plays are scarce, with only 5.3% of snaps gaining 20+ yards (106th). Their 44.8% rushing success rate (64th) and 4.7 yards per carry (82nd) show modest ground efficiency. Protection has been spotty, allowing pressure on just 2.9% of dropbacks (92nd). Slow tempo (29.1 seconds per play, 109th) and a 35.0% rate of zero- or negative-yardage plays (115th) have limited offensive rhythm, keeping the unit firmly in the lower-middle tier of Big Ten offenses.
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Michigan State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Aidan Chiles
Aidan Chiles has had an uninspiring season thus far, starting all six games producing 1,019 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on a 61.3% completion rate. He has displayed dual-threat ability, adding 299 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on 6.95 yards per carry, with a solid 62.8% rushing success rate and 55.8% first-down rate per run. However, a troubling 9.6% sack rate and 27.3% pressure-to-sack ratio indicate a real problem keeping cool when the pocket gets muddy. Chiles has still maintained a solid 8.2 adjusted net yards per attempt and a 69.4 QBR, but down-to-down consistency has been a real issue. He was knocked out of MSU’s last game against UCLA, so Chiles’ availability versus Indiana is still in question.
The Michigan State Spartans Defense
Michigan State’s defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses, ranking 77th in Defensive SP+ while allowing 5.89 yards per play (103rd) and 31.4 yards per drive (74th). The unit’s 44.4% success rate allowed (108th) and 71.4% red zone touchdown rate (111th) highlight issues getting stops and in goal-line situations. While the linebackers have been active producing a 6.9% havoc rate (13th), the defensive line and secondary have lagged with just a 3.5% DL havoc rate (103rd) while the DBs rank 124th in FBS. Overall, the defense is lagging far behind their Big Ten contemporaries and in danger of being barbecued again by a lethal Indiana offense.
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Michigan State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Jordan Hall
Jordan Hall has been the most productive defender on Michigan State’s roster, recording a team-high 36 tackles with an elite 94.7% tackling rate. He has accrued 6 havoc plays, including 3.5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks, while also forcing and recovering a fumble to go with an interception. Hall has shown strong instincts in both run and pass defense, producing three run stops and a 15.8% pressure rate on limited blitz opportunities. His blend of reliability and playmaking has made him the anchor of the Spartan front seven and a consistent tone-setter for DC Joe Rossi’s defense.
Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana team stats, betting trends
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Michigan State is on a 3-game winning streak at Indiana
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Indiana is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 games as a home favorite
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Michigan State’s last 4 road games have gone OVER the Total
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Michigan State is 2-4 ATS this season
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Game Totals involving Indiana are 3-3 to the OVER this season
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Game Totals involving Michigan State are 4-2 to the OVER this season
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Indiana Team Total OVER 39.5 Points
The books are petrified to put out player props on this game, since it’s all but a certainty that Indiana is going to destroy the Spartans. Indiana is going to do whatever they want against this sputtering MSU defense, as Illinois found out in their 63-10 loss to the Hoosiers in Week 4. The Hoosiers’ team total set at a realistic 39.5 points, I lean the Over in this heavily lopsided matchup.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
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Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Michigan State and No. 3 Indiana:
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Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
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Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Michigan State Spartans at +27.5.
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Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 52.5.
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