It’s a classic matchup of a dynamic offense against a stout defense Saturday in Norman, OK when the No. 8 Rebels of Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1) take on the No. 13 Sooners (6-1, 2-1).
This game brings with it major ramifications for not just the SEC but the national playoff picture as well. Neither team can afford a second loss at this point in their respective seasons.
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Ole Miss lost their first game of the season last week at Georgia, 43-35. The Rebels seemed to be in control of the game and led well into the second half, but it felt like in a blink Georgia took over the line of scrimmage and the Bulldogs rallied and pulled away late.
The Sooners bounced back from their lone loss on the campaign to Texas with a win at South Carolina, 26-7. The Oklahoma defense that allowed a season-high 23 points to Texas (yes, that was their SEASON-HIGH) two weeks ago shut down the Gamecocks limiting them to 15 first downs, 224 Total Yards, and a mere seven points.
The Rebels average 37.4 points per game while the Sooners allow just 9.4 points per game.
Lets dive into each school on both sides of the ball and learn what makes them tick.
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Game Details and How to watch No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma
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Date: Saturday, October 25th, 2025
Game Odds for No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
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Moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners (-205), Ole Miss Rebels (+170)
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Spread: Oklahoma -4.5 (-115)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach: Brent Venables
2025 Record: 6-1
Offense Ranking: 39
Defense Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: 12
Under Brent Venables, Oklahoma has evolved into a defense-first powerhouse that ranks No. 5th in SP+ with the 3rd overall defense in the nation. The Sooners have smothered opponents to the tune of 3.68 yards per play (1st nationally) and a 25.7% success rate, while generating a staggering 22.3% havoc rate(!). Offensively, Ben Arbuckle’s unit ranks 39th in Offensive SP+, leaning on efficiency over explosiveness with a 45.9% success rate and a 78.3% red zone touchdown rate that ranks top 10 nationally. With a 19.3-point average scoring margin and a projected 7.7 adjusted scoring edge, Oklahoma’s balance, physicality, and defensive dominance make them a legitimate College Football Playoff contender heading into the stretch run.
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The Oklahoma Sooners Offense
Oklahoma’s offense under new coordinator Ben Arbuckle has emphasized consistency and ball control, ranking 39th in Offensive SP+ with a 45.9% success rate (38th) despite limited explosiveness (115th). The Sooners are averaging a meager 5.44 yards per play (86th) and converting 78.3% of red-zone trips into touchdowns (10th). Quarterback-play behind John Mateer remains steady with a 49.3% passing success rate and 8.1 adjusted net yards per attempt (78th), even as the run game works through growing pains at just 2.12 YAC (122nd) 4.2 yards per carry (121st). The Sooners scored their season SEC-high of 26 points last week against South Carolina and are a far cry from the Lincoln Riley-era fireworks displays we had been treated to for his time in Norman.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Offense: QB John Mateer
Quarterback John Mateer has completed 64.9% of his passes for 1,567 yards and seven touchdowns, pairing a solid 11.8 yards per completion with a 49.3% success rate while keeping his sack rate at just 4.7%. On the ground, Mateer adds another dimension with 262 rushing yards and five scores, generating first downs on nearly one-third of his carries (32.7%) and maintaining a 54.5% rushing success rate. His 7-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 7-to-10 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate reflects his gambler’s nature, with Mateer sporting an uninspiring 69.4 passing grade thus far. Hopefully he’s over the hand injury that cost him some time and led to Mateer throwing three interceptions against Texas.
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The Oklahoma Sooners Defense
Brent Venables’ defense has reclaimed Oklahoma’s identity, leading the nation in success rate allowed (25.7%) and yards per play (3.68) while ranking No. 3 in Defensive SP+. The Sooners’ front seven has been suffocating, generating a 38.9% pressure rate and a 12.4% sack rate per dropback, both Top 10 nationally, anchored by a defensive line that ranks first in havoc rate (11.4%). They’ve been nearly impenetrable in scoring situations, allowing just 2.57 points per scoring opportunity (2nd) and a 36.4% red-zone touchdown rate (4th), each among the best marks in the country. Oklahoma’s defense has become the program’s backbone and is largely responsible for OU being a perfect 7-0 to the Under so far this season.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Defense: Edge R Mason Thomas
R Mason Thomas has emerged as one of the Big 12’s freakiest edge defenders, posting a team-leading 10.0 havoc plays through seven games for Oklahoma. The junior defensive end has been a constant backfield presence, tallying 7.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and four run stops while maintaining an 89.5% tackle rate. His 11.1% pressure rate on 90 pass rushes underscores both consistency and stamina, with a lightning-quick 2.44-second average time to first pressure that collapses pockets before quarterbacks can reset. Thomas’ blend of burst, hand technique, and finishing power has made him the Sooners’ most complete pass rusher and a tone-setter on a defense that ranks among the nation’s most havoc-driven under Brent Venables.
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Ole Miss Rebels
Head Coach: Lane Kiffin
2025 Record: 6-1
Offense Ranking: 10
Defense Ranking: 29
Strength of Schedule: 29
Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels have surged to a 6-1 record and No. 12 SP+ ranking, fueled by one of the nation’s most dangerous offenses. The Rebels rank 10th nationally in Offensive SP+ while averaging 6.8 yards per play (20th) and a 50.4% success rate (14th), showcasing their trademark tempo with just 22.9 seconds per snap (8th fastest). Quarterback play has been razor sharp, generating a 0.35 EPA per dropback (10th) and 11.3 adjusted net yards per attempt (16th), while the run game complements with a 52% rushing success rate (13th). Though the defense remains inconsistent at 29th in SP+ with just 4 turnovers, Kiffin’s offense has enough vertical punch and situational efficiency to give Ole Miss a 48.8% chance of making the CFP.
The Ole Miss Rebels Offense
Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss offense continues to operate at breakneck speed with ruthless efficiency, ranking 10th nationally in Offensive SP+ and averaging 6.8 yards per play. The Rebels boast a 50.4% success rate (14th) with a balanced 52.0% rushing success rate (13th) and 0.35 EPA per dropback (10th) through the air. Their tempo remains elite, snapping the ball every 22.9 seconds (8th-fastest in FBS) while facing man coverage 53% of the time (2nd most in FBS). With explosive passing metrics – 9.1 yards per dropback (6th) and 26.8% of completions going for 20+ yards (3rd) – Kiffin’s unit remains one of the most relentless scoring machines in college football.
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Ole Miss Player to Watch on Offense: QB Trinidad Chambliss
Dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has emerged as Ole Miss’ quarterback even now that Austin Simmons is healthy, completing 62.7% of his passes for 1,549 yards, 8 touchdowns, and just one interception over seven games. His blend of downfield aggression (62% comp rate on 20+ yard throws) and efficiency shows in his 14.9 yards per completion and 10.5 adjusted net yards per attempt. On the ground, Chambliss has added 348 rushing yards, 5.35 yards per carry, and a 52.3% success rate, consistently extending drives with his legs. With a Total QBR of 84.4, he’s proven to be one of the most dependable and dynamic dual-threat signal-callers in the SEC.
The Ole Miss Rebels Defense
Pete Golding’s Ole Miss defense has been opportunistic but inconsistent, ranking 29th in Defensive SP+ while allowing 5.45 yards per play (69th) and a 42.4% success rate (92nd). The Rebels struggle against the run, giving up 5.2 yards per carry (103rd) and a 46.4% rushing success rate (113th), often relying on red-zone resilience to compensate. They’ve held opponents to a modest 4.31 points per scoring opportunity (73rd) with 5.6% of snaps gaining 20+ yards (49th). While their overall havoc rate (13.5%) sits below average, Ole Miss leans on timely pressure and opportunistic coverage to keep opponents from fully capitalizing.
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Ole Miss Player to Watch on Defense: DT Will Echoles
Defensive tackle Will Echoles has been a disruptive interior force, recording 31 tackles, 7.0 havoc plays, and 5.0 tackles for loss through six games. His combination of burst and power has yielded 3.0 sacks and 14 total pressures on 139 pass-rush snaps, producing a commendable 10.1% pressure rate. Echoles’ 88.6% tackle rate and 83.3% success vs. run demonstrate both reliability and playmaking consistency inside. With a 2.96-second average time to pressure, he’s been a steady pocket-collapser and a key component of Ole Miss’ aggressive defensive front.
No. 8 Mississippi at No. 13 Oklahoma team stats, betting trends
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Oklahoma has won 6 straight home games
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Ole Miss has covered the spread in 7 of its last 10 games against teams with winning records
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The UNDER has cashed in each of Oklahoma’s 7 games this season
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The OVER has cashed in 4 of Ole Miss’ 7 games
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Ole Miss is 4-3 ATS this season
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Oklahoma is 3-3-1 ATS this season
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Trinidad Chambliss to go Under 44.5 Rushing Yards, good down to 40.5
As stated above, Oklahoma’s defensive line has been nothing short of ravenous when it comes to bringing pressure, with a 39% pressure rate (7th) and 12.4% sack rate which ranks #1 in all of FBS! For perspective, Ole Miss played UGA last week who ranks 125th with a 3.3% sack rate, almost four-times less than what Oklahoma is bringing to the table from a pursuit viewpoint.
Ole Miss ranks 104th in yards per successful rush and 73rd in YAC with a 9.5% blown run block rate (71st). Chambliss rushed 9 times for 42 yards against Georgia last week, and 11 for 15 rushing yards the week prior against Wazzu (who sacked Chambliss 3 times despite ranking 64th in pressure rate and 56th in sack rate). With defenses now keying on Chambliss, and Oklahoma almost assured of getting 2+ sacks against Ole Miss’ OL that ranks 90th in pressure rate allowed (2.8%), I’m taking Trinidad Chambliss to go Under 44.5 Rushing Yards, good down to 40.5.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
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Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 8 Ole Miss and No. 13 Oklahoma:
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Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
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Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Ole Miss Rebels at +5.5.
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Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the under on the Game Total of 54.5.
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