In a battle of unexpected SEC contenders, No. 15 Missouri travels to Nashville to face No. 10 Vanderbilt in a game with SEC and major College Football Playoff implications. The Commodores, led by dynamic quarterback Diego Pavia, have already stunned the conference, earning their first AP Top 10 ranking since 1947 after an upset victory over LSU.
Meanwhile, the Tigers enter the matchup with a balanced offense and strong defense but are at the back end of a stretch that has seen them lose a close game at home to Alabama and win at Auburn in overtime. The possibility exists that the Tigers are worn down heading into this game.
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This game will be about Vandy’s ability to maintain the momentum earned the past few weeks against a proven Missouri team that needs to dig deep to knock off the hometown Commodores and their fans.
Last season, Missouri narrowly defeated Vanderbilt in double overtime last season.
Lets dive into the schools, a handful of their impact players, and the numbers from both sides of the ball.
Game Details and How to watch No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt
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Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025
Game Odds for No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Friday:
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Moneyline: Missouri Tigers (+120), Vanderbilt Commodores (-142)
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Spread: Vanderbilt -3.0 (-102)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player prps for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
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Missouri Tigers
Head Coach: Eli Drinkwitz
2025 Record: 6-1
Offense Ranking: 17
Defense Ranking: 11
Strength of Schedule: 17
Missouri is once again outperforming expectations under HC Eliah Drinkwitz, opening 2025 with a 6–1 (2–1 SEC) record and an SP+ ranking of 8th nationally. The Tigers have built one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking 17th in Offensive SP+ and 11th defensively, combining a Top 20 offense that converts 50.6% of plays into successful gains with a defense allowing just 4.27 yards per play (9th nationally). Missouri’s offense thrives on balance averaging 5.9 yards per rush (16th) and a 70.1% completion rate (11th), while the defense generates havoc at a 19.1% rate (14th) and boasts the second-highest tackle success rate (92.6%) in the nation. With elite efficiency on both sides of the ball and a +21.8 adjusted scoring margin per game, the Tigers have positioned themselves as legitimate College Football Playoff contenders (31% chance).
The Missouri Tigers Offense
Missouri is fielding a top-flight offensive unit, ranking 17th in Offensive SP+ and 13th in success rate (50.6%). The Tigers dominate on the ground, averaging 5.9 yards per carry with a 51.3% rushing success rate (16th) while ranking third nationally in rushing EPA/play (0.28). Quarterback play has been equally sharp, posting a 70.1% completion rate (11th) and a 77.5 offensive QBR (17th) behind one of the country’s most disciplined lines that allows pressure on just 1.4% of dropbacks (7th nationally). Bolstered elite production on standard downs (52.8% success, 24th) and a Top 5 conversion rate on third downs (53.5%), Missouri’s offense is cashing in at a 5.12 points-per-scoring-opportunity clip (25th).
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Missouri Player to Watch on Offense: RB Ahmad Hardy
Running back Ahmad Hardy has been the centerpiece of Missouri’s ground game, carrying 139 times for 840 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging a superb 6.04 yards per rush. He’s posting a 51.8% rushing success rate and moving the chains on 34.5% of his carries, while only being stopped for no gain on 15.8% of attempts. Hardy has transitioned from the G5 seamlessly, averaging 4.44 yards after contact, with a phenomenal 0.36 missed tackles forced per rush. His combination of vision, burst, and durability has made Hardy Missouri’s most reliable offensive weapon and the primary catalyst behind Mizzou’s top-20 rushing efficiency ranking.
The Missouri Tigers Defense
Missouri’s defense has been one of the more formidable units in the SEC, ranking 11th in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.27 yards per play (9th). The Tigers are pitching a 92.6% tackle success rate (2nd nationally) backed by disruptive front-seven play that generates a 19.1% havoc rate (14th) and the nation’s 9th-best defensive line havoc rate (9.0%). Against the pass, Missouri suffocates opposing quarterbacks, allowing only 4.6 yards per dropback (9th) and a 30.7% passing success rate (5th), while also forcing pressure on 41.8% of dropbacks (3rd). Missouri’s relentless, efficient defense ranks top-10 in success rate, efficiency, and third-down stops (26.9%).
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Missouri Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Zion Young
Young has been the heart & soul of Missouri’s pass rush, producing 15 havoc plays including 10.5 tackles for loss and 5.0 sacks across seven games. His pass-rushing impact is elite, generating 17 total pressures on 104 rushes (16.3% rate) with a 3.02-second average time to pressure while forcing two fumbles. Young’s 95.8% tackling efficiency and 91.3% run-stop involvement show his impact when setting the edge. Young has become the Tigers’ tone-setter on an aggressive front that ranks among the SEC’s most productive.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Head Coach: Clark Lea
2025 Record: 6-1
Offense Ranking: 8
Defense Ranking: 37
Strength of Schedule: 15
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Vanderbilt has emerged as one of the SEC’s biggest surprises in 2025, starting 6–1 (2–1 SEC) with an SP+ ranking of 15th. The Commodores boast advanced offensive efficiency metrics — ranking 1st in EPA/play (0.34), 3rd in success rate (54.4%), and 2nd in points per scoring opportunity (5.60). Pavia’s QB play and offensive line protection have been exceptional, producing the nation’s No. 1 EPA per rush (0.31) and No. 7 EPA per dropback (0.41), while allowing pressure on 2.2% of dropbacks (45th). Under head coach Clark Lea, Vanderbilt has combined explosive playmaking with methodical drives, ranking 2nd nationally in 3rd-down success rate (55.7%), establishing itself as a legitimate contender in the SEC East.
The Vanderbilt Commodores Offense
Vanderbilt’s offense has transformed into one of the nation’s most entertaining units behind QB Diego Pavia, ranking 8th in Offensive SP+ and 1st nationally in EPA per play (0.34). The Commodores combine explosive rushing efficiency — 6.6 yards per carry (3rd) with an SEC-best 0.31 EPA per rush and a precise passing game that completes 68.5% of throws for 8.5 yards per dropback. They are somehow leading the country in both standard downs (58.9%) and passing downs success rate (53.6%), while averaging 7.35 yards per play (7th). Thanks to commendable offensive line play (only 2.2% pressure rate allowed) and methodical drive execution, Vanderbilt ranks 2nd in points per scoring opportunity (5.60) and 5th in red-zone touchdown rate (81.1%), making this unit one of college football’s most consistent and explosive in 2025.
Vanderbilt Player to Watch on Offense: QB Diego Pavia
Diego Pavia has been the driving force of the Vanderbilt offense, combining sharp passing efficiency with dynamic mobility. He’s completed 70.5% of his throws for 1,569 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions, averaging 9.6 adjusted net yards per attempt and earning an 85.2 Total QBR. Pavia has been lethal on the ground as well, rushing 72 times for 461 yards (6.4 YPC) with a 56.9% success rate and 20.8% of his runs going for 10+ yards. With a pristine 88.8 PFF passing grade and an 11.1% sack-to-pressure rate, Pavia’s efficiency and poise have made him one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch in the SEC this season.
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The Vanderbilt Commodores Defense
Vanderbilt’s defense has made major strides in 2025, ranking 37th in Defensive SP+ and thriving on disruption rather than bend-don’t-break containment. The Commodores generate havoc at all three levels — their 19.9% overall havoc rate ranks 10th nationally, fueled by a 7.7% DL havoc rate (21st) and 7.0% from the linebackers (11th). They’ve been particularly strong against the run, allowing just 4.6 yards per carry with a 41.5% rushing success rate allowed and ranking 26th in EPA per rush defense. Although the secondary can give up occasional explosive plays Vanderbilt compensates with tight coverage and heavy pressure ranking 18th in pressure rate (36.4%) and 26th in sacks per dropback (7.7%), giving this defense an aggressive, havoc-oriented identity.
Vanderbilt Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Khordae Sydnor
Khordae Sydnor has emerged as one of Vanderbilt’s most disruptive edge defenders, showcasing a complete blend of power, motor, and production. Through seven games, he has recorded 23 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and 10 total havoc plays, ranking among the team leaders in backfield disruption and pressures. His 12.5% pressure rate on 128 pass rushes underscores his steady ability to collapse the pocket, while a 3.06-second time to first pressure reflects solid get-off and pursuit speed. Backed by strong across-the-board PFF grades (77.1 overall, 74.7 run defense, 76.8 pass rush) and 22 total pressures, Sydnor’s blend of reliability and burst off the edge has made him a cornerstone of the Commodores’ front seven.
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No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt team stats, betting trends
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Vanderbilt has won its last 5 games as a favorite
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Vanderbilt is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 at home
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5 of Vanderbilt’s last 6 home games have gone OVER the Total
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The OVER has cashed in 5 of Missouri’s 7 games this season
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Missouri is 4-2-1 ATS this season
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Diego Pavia UNDER 220.5 Passing Yards
While Diego Pavia has been the catalyst of Vanderbilt’s 6-1 start, he has preferred to create with his legs as opposed to unleashing prodigious passing totals against elevated competition. When playing G5 or lower competition, Pavia popped off for 275, 245 and 321 yards. However, against Power Four opponents Pavia has yet to reach the 200-yard mark, topping out at 198 passing yards in a loss to Alabama where Vandy was in a chase script. Missouri possesses one of the most tenacious pass rushes in the nation, which means Pavia will be scrambling often which leads to more rush attempts. Which is what happened last week against LSU where he dropped back 31 times but attempted just 22 passes as he was operating on the move most of the day. Missouri ranks 4th nationally in plays defended at just 56, showing their ability to shorten games. I think Missouri can slow the game down enough to hold Pavia Under 220.5 Passing Yards for the 5th time against P4 opponents this season.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAAF calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Tigers and Commodores
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Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
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Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Vanderbilt Commodores at -2.5.
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Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 52.5.
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